The past is unpredictable enough

 By JEFF Z. KLEIN, NYT Slap Shot, Nov. 6, 2008 "Despite Fiscal Crisis, K.H.L. Will Still Bid for Stars, Russia Expert Says":

Below, Andrew Meier — Time magazine’s Russia correspondent from 1996 through 2001 and the author of three books on the country — answers a few more questions about the K.H.L.

Q: The world financial crisis of the last few weeks has hit Russia hard, particularly affecting industries like oil, steelmaking and mining. Since several teams in the K.H.L. are owned or sponsored by such industries, will they have to drastically cut expenses? Will we see a fire sale of players, for example?

A.M.: Couple of things we have to remember when trying to gauge how hard the global financial crisis will hit Russian sports. First of all, Russia’s stock market began to plummet much earlier — back in May. It then sank in most dramatic fashion in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August. It’s down, way down, but still alive. (When trading gets too wild, they shut it down for the day.) Second: the Russian state has been saving up for this rainy day. The state oil reserve fund has at least $141 billion. Third: Putin and Medvedev have moved quickly to shore up the favored oligarchs, offering liquidity lifelines to a host of industrial and financial titans. Finally, even though Russia lives on oil and gas exports and the oil price has fallen in recent weeks, it’s still higher than the price pegged (roughly $70/barrel) in the state budget.

All this comes with a weighty caveat. When it comes to Russia, trying to predict the future is a foolhardy pursuit. In that country, as Russians like to say, the past is unpredictable enough.

Q: If pocketbooks do need to be tightened, will K.H.L. clubs still be able to outpay the N.H.L. to lure players overseas?

A.M.: My gut says sure. The premium on “Western” stars — by that, I mean to include Russians who have also played in the N.H.L. — remains high. If anything, the drive in the K.H.L. seems to be to raise the limit on foreign nationals from five players (four, if one is a goalie) to six, seven or eight. American economic models, and the logic of U.S. front offices, don’t really apply to Russian clubs. First of all, who do they have to answer to? Just establishing who owns what in Russia can be a trying, and more often than not, futile endeavor. Transparency in Russian pro sports, as in nearly every sector of the post-Soviet market, is an acquired taste.

As we learned half of Cherepanov's team was drafted in the army and was supposed to serve instead of playing hockey. After the death of Cherepanov the defense ministry started the investigation and a lot of heads were rolled. After it happened, one of the colonels dismissed from the Russian army, said "Avanguard was paying 500,000 rubles a month to let the players off the hook. It was paid in cash, no documentation, no checks, and nobody knew where the money went."

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